Rice Export Ban in India, Ukraine War, and El Niño Threaten Food Security for Millions Globally

Global food security is in jeopardy as rising numbers of people face starvation, while the price of rice reaches a 12-year high due to disruptive geopolitical events, extreme weather conditions, and the onset of El Niño. This has sparked concerns among economists and humanitarian organizations as the number of hungry individuals grows faster than aid efforts can keep up.

In recent weeks, one of the major hurdles in the rice trade was the Indian government’s prohibition on non-basmati rice exports, which caused an immediate uptick in global rice prices. This staple food, crucial for nearly half the world’s population, has seen a significant price rise of 2.8% in July to its highest level since 2011, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) rice price index. The FAO cited India’s export ban as a major contributor to this increase, which was already in motion due to projected lower production rates.

India, which contributes about 40% of the global rice trade, initiated this ban to combat escalating domestic food prices. Before the ban, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had anticipated India to continue being the largest exporter of milled rice, a position it has held for several years.

The Indian government, which operates the largest food distribution program globally serving about 800 million people, aims to ensure affordable meals for its entire population. In addition to the looming threat of El Niño and fast-paced rice exports this year, the government decided to halt the trade on July 20.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s largest rice import market, will likely feel the impact of India’s export ban most acutely. Other major rice exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam are unable to fill the void left by India due to insufficient stocks and less promising production prospects for the upcoming season.

Following India’s ban, other rice-exporting countries may impose similar trade restrictions. According to Rabobank head of research, Stefan Vogel, when a major exporter like India imposes such restrictions, other nations usually follow suit, further straining the global rice market.

As the world grapples with the immediate effects of these recent developments, the future outlook remains bleak. The combined impacts of India’s rice export ban, war in Ukraine, and El Niño present serious challenges for global food security, and in particular, for the world’s most vulnerable and food-insecure populations.