Global Beef and Pork Markets Experience Unsteady Trends, New QMS Report Reveals

The worldwide beef and pork markets are undergoing notable fluctuations, as indicated by the recent analysis from Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).

The USDA in July revealed updated forecasts for global beef and pork markets, suggesting tighter balances for both. However, domestic beef market conditions have loosened since May, while pork farmgate prices exhibit a mild upward seasonal trajectory.

In the UK, the beef sector witnessed increased cattle slaughter numbers during the first half of the year. Meanwhile, significant drops in both import and export prices allude to fierce competitive pressures, especially in market segments where price trumps origin.

Iain Macdonald of QMS highlights that the European beef market has weakened this year, suggesting potential consumer budget constraints. While beef production has decreased, the significant price surges in 2021 and 2022 have largely reverted. However, certain prime cattle prices in Scotland maintain a competitive edge.

On the global front, the USDA predicts a 0.4% increase in beef production this year, overturning an earlier forecast of a slight decline. Changes in output expectations in Brazil and Argentina, particularly influenced by drought-driven slaughters, contributed to this revision.

Macdonald underscores the notable influence of exports from major producers like Australia, Argentina, and Brazil on global pricing. Notably, in China, consumer demand has not met expectations, resulting in reduced wholesale beef prices.

Conversely, the US beef market remains robust, with limited price impacts despite importing relatively cheaper beef. Macdonald points to strict US market access rules and limited tariffs, making the US market less attractive for Scottish exports.

Turning to pork, the USDA anticipates a modest 0.3% growth in 2023 global production, but consumption is expected to outpace this. Significant growth in Brazil, China, and the USA has exceeded previous predictions, while the EU’s decline is anticipated to be steeper.

Macdonald elaborates that despite increased domestic production, China’s pork imports will likely grow, reflecting consumption that outpaces its production capabilities. In the US, pork production has been on the rise, yet consumption is projected to dwindle, affecting farmgate prices and boosting exports. Contrarily, the EU’s tight supply ensures sustained upward pressure on pig farmgate prices.