Global Food Security at Risk as Russia Eyes Larger Share of Grain Market

The collapse of the Black Sea grain deal, along with Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, has escalated concerns over global food security. These disruptions come as Moscow seeks to expand its portion of the worldwide grain trade. Since abandoning a UN-mediated agreement, Russia and Ukraine have been targeting each other’s export infrastructures. The tension has seen missile strikes on Ukrainian grain terminals and threats to Black Sea vessels. This instability is causing heightened risk, with no immediate alternative to the grain exports from the Black Sea region, according to Arif Husain from the UN World Food Programme.

Analysts suggest that restricting Ukraine’s grain exports could provide Moscow an opportunity to claim a larger chunk of the global grain market, especially amid surging prices due to the ongoing conflict. Russia, already the leading wheat exporter, harvested a record grain volume in 2022-23 and stands to significantly benefit.

Meanwhile, the conflict has repercussions for global food prices and supplies. Countries such as China and Spain, major importers of Ukrainian grain, may face challenges. However, developing nations in Africa and the Middle East, which rely heavily on Ukrainian grain, could be hit hardest.

This crisis further strains an already fragile global food system, as evidenced by rising olive oil prices and India’s ban on specific rice exports. Ukrainian efforts to break the naval blockade and resume grain exports are ongoing, but they face the likelihood of military targeting by Russia. Alternative transport routes are also under threat, further underscoring the instability of grain supplies from the Black Sea region.

Lastly, the termination of the grain deal is a blow to Ukrainian farmers. The prior agreement had given them the assurance to plant vast amounts of crops. However, with the deal’s collapse, they may reduce planting, affecting the international market in the long run by eliminating a low-cost supplier.