Argentina’s Agricultural Exports Face Downward Revision for 2024

The Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) has revised its 2024 agricultural exports projection downward, with exports of grains including soybean, corn, wheat, sunflower, and barley now expected to reach just US$29.3 billion. This marks a US$5.7 billion improvement from 2023 but remains US$1.7 billion below the average of the past five years. The adjusted figures represent an 18% decrease from December’s estimate.

While the return of rains towards the end of 2023 initially promised a robust recovery in grain production for the 2023/24 cycle, the plague of leafhopper insects has significantly impacted corn yields. The report notes that late corn crops have been particularly vulnerable, resulting in an 11% production decrease from previously projected figures.

The reduced output, combined with a decline in international prices, contributes to the downgraded export projections. Despite some recovery, the value of Argentinian agricultural exports for the five main products is expected to remain below the five-year average.

The BCR highlights that its 2024 calendar year export estimates incorporate two campaigns for each affected crop– a factor crucial for understanding the overall projections. Overall, the outlook for the 2023/24 season suggests a modest export value of US$30.7 billion, representing a US$5.7 billion improvement but still falling short of the figures seen in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 cycles.

The GEA report, authored by Tomas Rodríguez Zurro and Emilce Terré, outlines the devastating impact of the leafhopper insect on corn production, especially for late crops. Despite expected recovery, the outlook remains uncertain amidst a fluctuating global economic landscape.