El Niño and Water Choices Blamed for Panama Canal Disruptions

A new study released Wednesday places the blame for last year’s Panama Canal shipping disruptions squarely on the El Niño weather phenomenon and water management decisions, rather than climate change. The decreased rainfall brought on by El Niño drastically reduced water levels throughout the canal system.

The study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution research consortium, also cites the prioritization of drinking water for the population over maintaining optimal canal levels as a significant factor. Panama experienced its third-driest year on record in 2023, forcing canal authorities to restrict traffic through the vital waterway, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and handles approximately 5% of global shipping volume.

The restrictions led to massive backlogs, at times exceeding 100 ships waiting up to 21 days for passage. Global supply chains were further stressed as shippers sought alternative routes following Houthi militant attacks on vessels in the Red Sea – Suez Canal route.

Scientists involved in the study offer hope, indicating that El Niño has ended and usual rainfall patterns should resume, allowing the canal to return to normal operations later this year. “We expect the canal system will be fully recharged by the end of the year and shipping should be back to normal sometime several months before then,” explained Steven Paton, co-author of the study and a researcher at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama.

The study decisively attributes the 26% decline in rainfall to El Niño, a naturally occurring Pacific Ocean warming event that impacts weather globally on a cyclical basis. While El Niño is a regular climate pattern, water management decisions exacerbated the situation at the canal. Lake Gatun, which feeds the canal’s locks, is also a primary source of drinking water for half of Panama’s population. Opting to preserve drinking water supplies further depleted canal water levels.