El Niño Boosts Soybean Harvest in South America, But Northern Brazil Faces Concerns

The reappearance of the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to boost South American soybean production by increasing rainfall. This will assist farmers, especially in lower latitudes, to recover from the season’s severe drought. El Niño, characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters, is anticipated to be mild to moderate. It will likely benefit farmers in Brazil’s southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, and neighboring Argentina. While Brazil could set a soybean production record of about 160 million metric tons in the 2023/24 cycle, Argentina’s output could almost double. Luiz Roque of Safras & Mercado forecasts Argentina’s production to be between 45-48 million tons, up from 2023’s 25 million tons. Favorable weather conditions could solidify the soybean export dominance of Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, with potential exports of around 169 million tons in 2023/24. However, Roque warns of below-average rainfall in the northern half of Brazil starting from November. This could impact yields in the central-west and southeast regions, but not lead to a crop failure. Such predictions could affect soybean prices and limit the crop’s expansion. Antonio Galván, head of the Aprosoja Brasil soybean farmers group, hinted that farmers might not increase plantations due to low prices and anticipated reduced rainfall in Brazil’s northern areas. Meteorologist Desiree Brandt indicated that while the weather might not be ideal for crops this season, conditions are not expected to be as dry as in 2015/16 when significant crop losses occurred.