High Likelihood of El Niño Conditions This Winter, U.S. Forecaster Predicts

The U.S. government’s weather forecasting body has indicated a 95% likelihood that El Niño conditions will persist from December 2023 through February 2024. This represents an increased risk of heatwaves and flooding across several countries. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has raised its forecast from the 90% chance it predicted in July. Meanwhile, Japan’s weather bureau also anticipates a 90% chance of El Niño continuing throughout the northern hemisphere’s winter.

This weather phenomenon, characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, has already triggered various natural disasters worldwide. Emerging markets, particularly susceptible to fluctuations in food and energy prices, are at heightened risk.

El Niño’s impact is also evident in global rice supply disturbances, particularly from India, a leading exporter. Essential crops, including coffee, sugar, and chocolate from Southeast Asia and Africa, are also under threat. As the weather pattern intensifies, West Africa, South-East Asia, and northern South America are expected to experience drier conditions, while southern South America might face increased rainfall. The World Meteorological Organization had earlier warned of El Niño’s potential role in increasing global temperatures.