Ukraine’s Wheat Harvest High in Yield but Low in Area Due to War

Ukraine’s wheat harvest this year is boasting some of its highest yields. However, the ongoing conflict with Russia has resulted in a 30-40% reduction in the total wheat planting area. As a consequence, while individual yield rates are impressive, the overall tonnage will not set a new record.

A significant portion of arable land in Ukraine is either currently occupied by Russian forces or is rendered uncultivable due to landmines. “With no war, we might have seen a record 30m tonnes wheat crop, but now we’re looking at just 19m tonnes,” stated Mike Lee, founder of Green Square Agro Consulting.

By 4 August, around 60% of the 4.3m hectares of wheat had been harvested, yielding 12.5m tonnes, with an average yield of 4.64t/ha. In comparison, 2021 saw a record average yield of 4.45t/ha, resulting in a 33m tonnes wheat harvest.

However, the shadow of war looms large over Ukraine’s agricultural sector. The lands occupied by Russian forces could potentially produce around 10m tonnes of wheat. The prolonged conflict has led to falling wheat prices, often below production costs. This, combined with the challenges in cash flow and acquiring farming inputs, prompted farmers to reduce their grain crops planting area from 11.4m hectares last year to 9.8m hectares this year.

With the autumn planting season approaching, there’s uncertainty in the air. There’s no clarity if Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, will renew the crucial Black Sea grain deal. Termination of this deal has stopped grain exports via Black Sea ports, leading to increased costs and logistical challenges through alternative routes.

With the continuation of low domestic grain prices, Lee anticipates a further drop in Ukraine’s crop area for 2023-24. “If farmers are expected to sell at a loss, why would they plant more crops?” he remarked.

According to a report from the Ukrainian agriculture ministry on 4 August, the total grain harvested so far stands at 16.57m tonnes, out of which 12.5m tonnes is wheat.